Last summer, my then-boyfriend—not an economist but, as it turned out, a very rational kind of asshole—drove me to the airport to San Francisco. As I trying to connect up Apple Music in the car, I frustratingly struggled with his ancient iPhone 8. He muttered that “the new one is already ordered.” I nodded. Fine.

Weeks later, I landed back from Yale, and he was there to pick me up again—with the same cracked iPhone 8. He explained that he had read online that the iPhone 16 would be released soon, with significantly better performance and the same launch price as the current iPhone 15. So, being the rational agent he is, he canceled the order and decided to wait.

This story stuck with me—not the breakup (although, to be fair, I could write a paper about that too), but because of the underlying economic tension: how information—even vague, speculative, or partial—can shift consumer’s purchasing behavior.

In fact, there’s a fascinating paper along similar lines by Drakopoulos, Jain, and Randhawa (2021), titled “Persuading Customers to Buy Early: The Value of Personalized Information Provisioning.” There, the seller has private knowledge of inventory levels and can shape demand timing by selectively sharing information. See my previous blog about it here.

So what if the firm’s private information isn’t about inventory, but about the quality and pricing of a product that hasn’t yet launched? What can the firm do—especially when consumers are trying to decide whether to buy now or wait? Many products—from iPhones to Sony cameras to Nintendo consoles—are released in regular or semi-regular cycles. Consumers know a new version is likely coming, but they don’t know exactly how good it will be or how much it will cost. The firm, of course, does know, or at least has internal forecasts.

This became the basis of a new theory paper I’m working on. The model is a stylized two-period persuasion game: the firm knows the future product’s quality, the consumer doesn’t. The consumer chooses whether to buy now (the known product) or wait for the uncertain next version. The firm, meanwhile, decides how much to reveal—via designing a signaling policy. I model this using Bayesian persuasion—an approach that lets the firm commit to an information policy in advance, shaping consumer beliefs through signals, with commitment.

Why information design instead of cheap talk? Because firms like Apple don’t just say whatever they want—they build reputations. Over time, strategic patterns of hints, leaks, or silences become a kind of soft commitment. And unlike cheap talk, information design gives more general and easier analysis.

And of course, in practice, Apple is a master of this game. Through tightly managed leaks, teaser campaigns, and carefully curated press silence, Apple engineers a constant state of anticipation. They rarely confirm rumors, but they don’t entirely shut them down either. The goal isn’t just to inform; it’s to shape expectations. As one PR analysis put it: “Apple curates the amount of information shared in advance to fuel excitement without revealing too much.”

3) Building Anticipation Through Strategic Leaks and Rumors

In the world of technology PR, few companies are as adept at creating buzz as Apple. Part of this success lies in the strategic use of leaks and rumors. While other companies may dread the spread of unverified information, Apple has turned it into an art form. The company knows that the more rumors and leaks there are surrounding a new product, the more anticipation builds among its audience.

Apple rarely comments on rumors, but it often strategically leaks tidbits of information to generate buzz ahead of official product announcements. Whether it’s details about the next iPhone’s camera, the design of a new MacBook, or a potential software update, Apple’s PR team carefully curates the amount of information that is shared in advance to fuel excitement without revealing too much. This calculated mix of secrecy and speculation creates an air of mystery and excitement that keeps customers on the edge of their seats, awaiting the official announcement.

How Apple mastered technology PR to build a global brand with trust and innovation by Ronn Torossian | Dec 9, 2024 | Branding & Reputation | Agility PR Solutions

I see this exploration might one day speak to real-world practice—not in offering Apple a ready-made PR playbook, but in clarifying the strategic logic that underlies the timing and form of disclosure. In the future, perhaps OM research can translate these insights into actionable strategy. But for now, this theory sketch offers one step in that direction.

But there may be more going on. In some cases, a firm might care not only about immediate revenue but also about the informational value of its signaling: the buzz, the anticipation, the market tension before a release. Few firms master this like Apple. With its carefully timed leaks, tightly controlled silence, and polished unveilings, Apple creates a kind of ritualized suspense around each product drop.

And as for the iPhone 16—he bought it, finally. Good for him. I upgraded too.